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"}],[{"start":12.29,"text":"The US economy has done far better over the past few years than many would have expected, particularly given the multiple headwinds from the pandemic, US-China decoupling, the war in Ukraine and general political chaos in Washington. "}],[{"start":25.52,"text":"The country has enjoyed an almost immaculate economic cooling, along with a still-robust jobs market and good overall gross domestic product growth. "},{"start":33.424,"text":"Particularly when compared with other countries, the US economy looks as good as it could be right now. "},{"start":38.766999999999996,"text":"However, there is one conspicuous fly in the ointment — housing. "}],[{"start":43.67,"text":"You can see it in last week’s consumer price index numbers, which showed inflation to be a bit higher than was forecast. "},{"start":49.974000000000004,"text":"The main culprit, aside from ever-volatile food and oil prices, was housing. "},{"start":54.642,"text":"The shelter index portion of the CPI was up 7.2 per cent over the past year, accounting for more than 70 per cent of the total increase in all items, aside from food and fuel. "}],[{"start":65.64,"text":"The inflation numbers raise the prospect of another Federal Reserve interest rate increase in the future, at a time when Wall Street was betting that hikes were over. "}],[{"start":74.55,"text":"But would that be the best policy solution for the housing problem in the US? "},{"start":78.767,"text":"There’s a strong argument to be made that the answer is no. "},{"start":81.809,"text":"For some time now, the core inflation story in America has been all about housing. "},{"start":86.55199999999999,"text":"Unlike other markets, including the UK, where prices have dropped 13.4 per cent in real terms from their March 2022 peak, the American housing market is not cooling, despite multiple interest rate hikes. "}],[{"start":99.49,"text":"Indeed, you can argue that rate rises have made things worse in housing markets. "},{"start":104.107,"text":"How is this to be explained? "},{"start":105.874,"text":"Start with the fundamental problem, which is too little housing supply relative to demand in the US. "},{"start":111.142,"text":"The country’s housing production hasn’t kept pace with household formation since the Great Financial Crisis of 2008, when the number of housing unit starts dropped off a cliff. "},{"start":120.15899999999999,"text":"Since then, demand has far outpaced supply, leaving the US millions of units short of what its population needs. "}],[{"start":127.13,"text":"Part of this is about nimbyism, meaning the “not in my backyard” approach to housing policy at a local level. "},{"start":133.172,"text":"While plenty of Americans in big cities such as New York, Los Angeles or San Francisco would agree that there’s a need for more affordable housing, and indeed more housing in general, few prosperous homeowners (or even renters) would vote to locate such a project near them. "}],[{"start":148.70999999999998,"text":"Studies have found that city politics around zoning tends to favour the opponents of plans rather than the developers. "},{"start":154.82699999999997,"text":"This is a key reason that housing remains constrained. "}],[{"start":158.74999999999997,"text":"This problem is being further fuelled by an influx of migrants to sanctuary cities in the US, where shelter is in theory guaranteed but in practice is not available. "},{"start":167.60399999999998,"text":"There are also lingering issues with inflation on materials and labour since the pandemic. "},{"start":172.22199999999998,"text":"These have either deterred new home construction or simply made it unaffordable. "}],[{"start":177.14,"text":"Housing is, in many ways, America’s last remaining supply chain problem. "},{"start":182.232,"text":"Fuel prices are up, as well, though that issue will eventually be resolved as US wells pump more and Opec adjusts supply. "},{"start":189.29899999999998,"text":"But the problem of housing inflation, which has been unwittingly exacerbated by the Fed, won’t go away any time soon. "},{"start":195.767,"text":"The home price