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The rise of populist and far-right parties in Sunday’s European parliament elections was partly mirrored by falls for green parties — even if the centre largely held. Five years after the euphoria the Greens experienced in 2019, when they increased their seats from 52 to 74, they slipped back to 53. The setback is unlikely to lead to a widescale rollback of EU climate policies. But it will surely mean less green ambition in the coming five years — with implications well beyond Europe.
在周日的欧洲议会选举中，民粹主义和极右翼政党的崛起在一定程度上反映了绿色政党的衰落——尽管中间派在很大程度上保持了稳定。绿党在2019年经历了从52个席位增至74个席位的喜悦，五年后，他们的席位回落到53个。这一挫折不太可能导致欧盟气候政策的大规模倒退。但这肯定意味着未来五年的绿色雄心将减弱，其影响将远远超出欧洲。
The Greens’ performance in 2019 may prove a high-water mark. In the more benign, pre-pandemic and prewar economic environment, mass rallies inspired by green groups and activists such as Greta Thunberg helped to make climate concerns a central electoral issue. In response, mainstream parties were adopting net zero pledges and Ursula von der Leyen, the then incoming European Commission president, made the Green Deal — which aims to make the EU climate-neutral by 2050 — her flagship project.
绿党在2019年的表现可能会被证明是一个高水位。在大流行前和战前较为温和的经济环境中，绿色团体和活动家——如格蕾塔•通贝里(Greta Thunberg)——激发的群众集会有助于使气候问题成为选举的核心议题。作为回应，主流政党纷纷通过了净零承诺，当时即将上任的欧盟委员会主席乌尔苏拉•冯德莱恩(Ursula von der Leyen)制定了旨在到2050年使欧盟实现气候中和的《绿色协议》(Green Deal)，这是她的旗舰项目。
Unfortunately, voters began to feel the impact of green policies on their wallets and lifestyles just as post-pandemic inflation and the energy shock from the Ukraine war kicked in. Some governments exacerbated the problem through mis-steps; the botched introduction by Germany’s three-way coalition — including the Greens — of a bill to replace new gas and oil heating systems with heat pumps created a backlash exploited by the far-right AfD.
不幸的是，就在大流行后的通货膨胀和乌克兰战争带来的能源冲击开始显现时，选民们开始感受到绿色政策对他们钱包和生活方式的影响。一些政府的错误做法加剧了问题的严重性；德国包括绿党在内的三方联盟错误地提出了用热泵取代新的燃气和燃油供暖系统的法案，引起了极右翼政党德国选择党(AfD)的反弹。
Hard-right parties elsewhere made political capital out of promises to slow the transition, and centre-right parties adopted watered-down versions of the same rhetoric. EU-wide farmers’ protests over environmental regulations seen as heavy-handed provided a very different backdrop to the 2024 vote.
其他地方的极右翼政党利用减缓过渡的承诺获得了政治资本，而中右翼政党则采取了同样言辞的淡化版本。欧盟范围内针对被视为过于严厉的环境法规的农民抗议活动为2024年的选举提供了截然不同的背景。
The overall picture is mixed. It is far more complex than green votes flowing directly to far-right parties — though green parties performed worst in France and Germany, where the far right did best. Greens fared better in Sweden, where the far right did not surge, and advanced in Denmark — while the Labour/Green alliance in the Netherlands narrowly overtook Geert Wilders’ far-right party. Where hard-right parties did well, polling suggests concern about migration — or its effects on, say, housing costs — was a bigger factor than the “greenlash”.
整体情况复杂多样。它远比绿党选票直接流向极右翼政党更加复杂——尽管绿党在法国和德国表现最差，而极右翼在这两个国家表现最好。绿党在瑞典表现较好，极右翼势力没有激增，在丹麦也取得了进展——而荷兰的工党/绿党联盟则以微弱优势超过了海尔特•威尔德斯(Geert Wilders)的极右翼政党。在极右翼政党表现良好的地方，民意调查显示对移民问题的担忧——或者说移民对住房成本等方面的影响——比“绿色冲击”更为重要。
Yet an enlarged hard-right presence in the parliament, and the greater caution of von der Leyen’s centre-right EPP group, provide a much less propitious outlook for green policies in the next five years — which are vital to determining whether the EU achieves its 2030 climate change targets. Green laws already adopted will be hard to undo. But some, including the 2035 phaseout of the sale of new petrol or diesel cars, are due to be reviewed, and could be weakened. A less climate-friendly parliament could make life harder for Brussels’ proposal to agree a legal target of cutting net emissions by 90 per cent, from 1990 levels, by 2040. Von der Leyen seems likely to adopt a different focus, such as defence, if she secures a second term.
然而，由于议会中强硬右翼势力的扩大，以及冯德莱恩领导的中右翼欧洲人民党党团更加谨慎，未来五年绿色政策的前景将大打折扣，而这些政策对于欧盟能否实现2030年气候变化目标至关重要。已经通过的环保法律很难被废除。但是，包括2035年逐步停止销售新汽油车或柴油车在内的一些法律将接受审查，并可能被削弱。一个对气候不那么友好的议会，可能会让布鲁塞尔提出的到2040年将净排放量在1990年的基础上减少90%的法律目标更难实现。如果冯德莱恩获得连任，她似乎可能会采取不同的关注点，比如国防。
Policymakers committed to the green transition need to learn lessons. They must be finely attuned to the impact on consumers, and ensure policies are well designed and communicated, with help for those most heavily affected. More targeted tax incentives to reduce the upfront costs of, say, installing solar panels or switching to electric vehicles could accelerate adoption by businesses and households alike.
致力于绿色转型的政策制定者需要吸取教训。他们必须密切关注对消费者的影响，确保政策设计合理、沟通顺畅，并为受影响最严重的人群提供帮助。通过更有针对性的税收激励措施来降低安装太阳能电池板或改用电动汽车等的前期成本，可以加快企业和家庭的采用速度。
A more compelling narrative is needed, too, on the jobs, businesses and technologies the green transition will create. The European election of 2024 might yet prove to be the peak of the far right. But amid efforts to neutralise rightwing extremism, the focus on combating the epochal threat of climate change must not be lost.
关于绿色转型将创造的就业、商业和技术，还需要一个更有说服力的叙述。2024年的欧洲大选可能会被证明是极右翼的巅峰。但在消除右翼极端主义的努力中，绝不能忽视应对气候变化这一划时代威胁的重点。