Does Africa need its own credit rating agency? - FT中文网
登录×
电子邮件/用户名
密码
记住我
请输入邮箱和密码进行绑定操作:
请输入手机号码,通过短信验证(目前仅支持中国大陆地区的手机号):
请您阅读我们的用户注册协议隐私权保护政策,点击下方按钮即视为您接受。
非洲经济

Does Africa need its own credit rating agency?

A pan-continental body is not a cure-all for its debt problems

Africa’s debt problems were high on the agenda at last week’s IMF-World Bank meetings. Around 20 low-income African nations are either bankrupt or at high risk of debt distress. And across the continent, high interest rates, soaring inflation and sluggish economies have made post-pandemic debt piles harder to shrink.

Regional policymakers reckon an “Africa premium” is also to blame. This, they say, is the additional cost nations face when raising finance, simply for being African. They argue it stems from bias and inaccuracy in the credit scores given by the “Big Three” American credit rating agencies, S&P Global, Moody’s and Fitch — which account for 95 per cent of the global ratings market.

In recent years, African finance ministers have increasingly voiced concerns over their credit ratings, and have called for the creation of the continent’s own scoring institution. Just this week, regional experts are meeting in Nairobi to discuss how to improve credit assessments across the continent. The African Union expects an African Credit Rating Agency (AfCRA) — which has been in the works since 2022 — to launch next year.

African nations do tend to have a higher cost of capital relative to peers with similar economic profiles. But it is hard to ascertain how much of this premium might reflect misguided perceptions, or realities around idiosyncratic political risks and structural economic challenges. Rating agencies also argue that they apply the same, rigorous debt sustainability framework to all sovereigns, whether in Africa or not.

That does not mean the complaints of Africa’s policymakers are baseless. Credit ratings are not an exact science, and the Big Three have quickly reversed credit opinions in the past. Rating agencies combine economic analysis — using metrics such as economic growth, debt ratios, and foreign reserves — with a qualitative assessment of policies, institutions, and political and geopolitical dynamics. All of these may have an impact on creditworthiness. But the quality and reliability of Africa’s national statistics is poor. The Big Three agencies also have limited on-the-ground presence in the continent, which raises doubt over their ability to conduct holistic assessments.

This means that even if there is no systemic bias against African nations, there could still be flaws in their rating methodologies. Last year, the UN Development Programme estimated that African nations could save up to $75bn in excess interest payments and forgone lending if the agencies based scores on a more “objective” credit model.

An Africa-led credit rating agency is no panacea, however. First, poor governance, a lack of market depth, and complications in restructuring loans are the main culprits for the continent’s indebtedness. The Big Three can be easy scapegoats. Second, a nation’s ability to repay its debts depends on more than economic models. That means judgments on issues like political dynamics are always necessary. AfCRA may lack credibility with investors if it is seen as too favourable to local debtors. Building trust will be crucial, given that most capital comes from outside the continent.

There could be merit in AfCRA if it was refocused to raise regional data quality and share analysis with the established agencies. The Big Three would also be wise to raise their presence in the fast-growing, young continent which is garnering more investor interest. Africa faces an enormous investment gap to tackle climate change and boost productivity, which means fair and accurate financing costs are essential.

Even if the assessment of Africa’s credit ratings can become more granular, the biggest drivers of its high borrowing costs will still remain. Regional finance ministers should not be distracted from important, but difficult, public finance reforms. These include improving tax collection and phasing out wasteful subsidies. Multilateral debt restructuring efforts must also continue. Indeed, it will take a lot more than Africa’s own credit rating agency to turn the continent’s cash flow problems around.

版权声明:本文版权归FT中文网所有,未经允许任何单位或个人不得转载,复制或以任何其他方式使用本文全部或部分,侵权必究。

再次陷入危机的大众汽车能走上改革之路吗?

欧洲最大的汽车制造商正与工人和政界人士交战,试图渡过痛苦的电动汽车转型期。

哈里斯的另一个大选对手:通货膨胀

美国选民对高昂生活成本的不满可能决定下周谁将赢得白宫。

Lex专栏:Meta和微软通过季度理智检查

科技巨头今天吹捧真正的胜利,以证明明天的巨额投资是合理的。投资者对此是支持的,但程度有限。

FT社评:英国工党预算——雄心勃勃,前景不明

财政大臣蕾切尔•里夫斯现在必须兑现她的投资计划,否则税收还将进一步增加。

Lex专栏:大众汽车很难走出死胡同

尽管这家汽车制造商计划裁员和关闭工厂,但投资者的担忧是可以理解的。

安谋如何成为人工智能投资热潮中的意外赢家

这家由软银控股的英国芯片设计公司的股价在过去一年上涨了两倍。但它的野心远不止于此。
设置字号×
最小
较小
默认
较大
最大
分享×