A new Washington consensus is born - FT中文网
登录×
电子邮件/用户名
密码
记住我
请输入邮箱和密码进行绑定操作:
请输入手机号码,通过短信验证(目前仅支持中国大陆地区的手机号):
请您阅读我们的用户注册协议隐私权保护政策,点击下方按钮即视为您接受。
观点 华盛顿共识

A new Washington consensus is born

The conversion by the IMF and World Bank to the return of the activist state would put Saul of Tarsus to shame
00:00

{"text":[[{"start":11.95,"text":"Anyone who, like me, was a student in the 1990s will remember how international governing institutions were then the chic thing to demonstrate against. "}],[{"start":21.049999999999997,"text":"One image that sticks with me is of a young woman carrying a figure of a three-headed troll, representing (as she earnestly told the media) the IMF, the World Bank and the World Trade Organization ravaging the world’s poor. "}],[{"start":33.73,"text":"I wonder what she would think today. "},{"start":35.897,"text":"When the policy outlook on display at the recent IMF and World Bank spring meetings is compared to what drew student ire a quarter of a century ago, it amounts to a conversion that could put Saul of Tarsus to shame. "}],[{"start":47.949999999999996,"text":"The World Bank and the fund were excoriated in the 1980s and ‘90s for making the poor pay for basic health provision or presuming that deficits were bad for growth. "},{"start":56.629,"text":"That is long gone. "},{"start":58.122,"text":"Here is the new Washington consensus: "}],[{"start":61.449999999999996,"text":"Spend big on public health. "},{"start":63.678999999999995,"text":"Fiscal probity, long the core of IMF prescriptions (the joke was that the initials stand for “it’s mostly fiscal”), is no longer about reining in public spending but about getting value for money — and spending more where the value can be found. "}],[{"start":76.69999999999999,"text":"That means doing whatever it takes to produce and deliver vaccines globally. "},{"start":80.99199999999999,"text":"The IMF’s Fiscal Monitor publication estimates that getting the pandemic under control everywhere would “yield more than $1tn in additional tax revenues in advanced economies, [cumulatively], by 2025, and save more in fiscal support measures”. "}],[{"start":96.41,"text":"In other words, what governments spend on vaccinations can pay for itself many times over. "},{"start":101.702,"text":"The fund argues strongly for education spending, too, to make up for lost learning in the pandemic and help workers cope with structural changes going forward. "}],[{"start":110.67999999999999,"text":"The multilateral institutions’ economists at times seem intensely relaxed about massive deficit spending by rich countries. "},{"start":117.472,"text":"The IMF takes a benign view of US President Joe Biden’s mammoth $1.9tn rescue package "}],[{"start":124.69999999999999,"text":"Like other forecasters, it expects US national income to be higher next year than expected before the pandemic. "},{"start":131.054,"text":"And it sees insufficient demand stimulus as having permanent costs: countries whose governments spend less money will suffer more “scarring” that cuts long-term productive potential. "}],[{"start":140.91,"text":"In parallel with all of this, the IMF continues to preach prudence, but that means something very different from a decade let alone a generation ago. "},{"start":149.114,"text":"Strikingly, the fund endorses “recovery contributions” — what others might call temporary solidarity surtaxes — from rich individuals and corporate windfall profits. "}],[{"start":159.64,"text":"The message from the erstwhile headquarters of “neoliberalism” is that to make public finances sustainable, the wealthy and those who have profited from the pandemic should contribute more to the common cause. "}],[{"start":170.69,"text":"The IMF even suggested that rich countries could consider net wealth taxes, apparently channelling leftwing US senators Elizabeth Warren and Bernie Sanders. "}],[{"start":180.10999999999999,"text":"Concerns about inequality were everywhere at the spring meetings. "},{"start":183.75199999999998,"text":"The main policy challenge that the IMF chose to highlight was “managing divergent recoveries” — among countries and among groups within countries — due to the pandemic and in the new normal as economies recover from it. "}],[{"start":195.73999999999998,"text":"Back in the ‘90s, it was a truism the Washington consensus reflected the aligned priorities of two DCs: the international institutions based there and the US government — with the latter to a significant degree driving the former. "}],[{"start":208.89999999999998,"text":"That alignment remains. "},{"start":210.84199999999998,"text":"Multilateral calls for the return of an activist state role dovetail with Biden’s ambition to emulate Franklin Roosevelt’s New Deal reforms. "}],[{"start":219.42,"text":"But it is hard to argue today that the IMF and the World Bank simply parrot US preferences, even if being on the same page as their biggest shareholder makes life easier. "},{"start":228.774,"text":"The shift in the thinking of the international economic policy community predated that of the US government. "}],[{"start":234.7,"text":"And the relationship can flow both ways. "},{"start":237.35399999999998,"text":"The White House does not take directions from the multilateral institutions located a few city blocks to the west. "}],[{"start":243.60999999999999,"text":"But it does not hurt Biden that the global guardians of economic orthodoxy have endorsed the most radical US programme in generations, especially when some Americans are engaging in friendly fire. "}],[{"start":254.75,"text":"Politics is the art of the possible — but what is possible is often determined by what is conceivable. "},{"start":260.229,"text":"The new Washington consensus could prove as politically powerful as the old one. "}],[{"start":264.58,"text":""}]],"url":"https://creatives.ftacademy.cn/album/001092112-1618199462.mp3"}

版权声明:本文版权归FT中文网所有,未经允许任何单位或个人不得转载,复制或以任何其他方式使用本文全部或部分,侵权必究。

美英贸易谈判的关键是什么?

特朗普提出了一项可能帮助英国避免关税的协议,而斯塔默则更为谨慎,提出了“一项以先进技术为核心的新经济协议”。

欧洲的乌克兰救援任务:留住特朗普

欧洲主要大国齐聚伦敦峰会,希望从摇摇欲坠的战后秩序中挽救一些东西。

欧洲央行降息的速度会有多快?

市场普遍预期欧洲央行将在本周政策会议上降息,投资者将集中精力寻找其今年晚些时候可能采取的行动的线索。

特朗普的命令对美国海上风电产业造成致命打击

甚至在特朗普再次当选给整个行业带来寒意之前,开发海上风电的经济效益前景已经很不乐观。

深度求索启发全球AI公司用“蒸馏”来创建更便宜的模型

深度求索利用这种技术,在Meta等竞争对手的技术基础上创建了更小、更强大的模型。

您上周需要做的一件事

要知道,马斯克并不是第一个要求员工列出工作中最重要的五件事的老板,他只是最糟糕的老板而已。
设置字号×
最小
较小
默认
较大
最大
分享×